This week, we’re talking uncertainty, tariffs, and timing.
From U.S.–China trade shifts to brands rethinking their Q4 inventory strategies, the mood across food and beverage feels tense. Everyone’s asking the same question: do we wait, or move fast while we still can?
A temporary tariff rollback offers a short-term breather but for most operators, it’s less of a solution and more of a scramble. And with lead times, freight delays, and seasonal demand all colliding at once, there’s not much room for error.
Plus, in this week’s product spotlight: Glico’s experimental soft candy made almost entirely from rice — a quiet masterclass in ingredient utility.
Let’s get into it.
Credit: Al Jazeera
A 90-Day Window
For last week’s newsletter, I spoke with some of our newest co-manufacturing partners in China.
One of them put it bluntly, “As for the tariffs, it really hurts both American and Chinese businesses. Now almost all business to the U.S. market I hear has stopped.”
That’s been the mood. But then came a shift.
Last week, the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily roll back tariffs for 90 days — dropping the rate from 145% to 30%. Sounds like good news. And it is.
But for most brands, it feels more like catching your breath in the middle of a sprint.
The same manufacturer’s sales director followed up with another email after the announcement:
“Although no one can predict what happens after 90 days, it’s a signal that we still need each other, at least for trading.”
That tone feels familiar. It’s showing up in almost every conversation in food and beverage right now. Especially for anyone sourcing from or manufacturing in China.
A 30% tariff is still steep. But it’s not fatal. 145% was. It triggered immediate inventory freezes across categories — snacks, confectionery, supplements. Everyone hit the brakes.
And now, even with the 90-day window, we might the ripple effects:
- Some companies might rush to get orders out the door before August.
- Others might still be holding out, unsure whether to absorb 30% or wait for further relief.
This has already started showing up in reported shipping data. According to Modern Retail, the Port of LA saw a 35% drop in container volume last month. E-commerce and DTC brands are already seeing delays. Brands don’t even know how much inventory to order for the holidays, because they don’t know what the rules will be when it lands.
And that’s the real issue: uncertainty.
Planning production takes time. You can’t just flip a switch. From sourcing and sampling to freight and packaging, every new SKU or reorder comes with lead time, and when that window shrinks, brands either delay or overpay.
If you’re developing new products, prepping for seasonal demand (especially for candy and chocolate), or rethinking Q4 sourcing, we’re here to help.
Crecit: Glico
This Candy Is a Masterclass in Ingredient Utility
Glico just dropped something unfamiliar and brilliant: a soft candy made almost entirely from rice.
Rice syrup for sweetness, rice flour for structure, rice protein for aroma and texture, rice bran oil for mouthfeel, and a bit of sugar to hold it all together. Five ingredients. Four of them rice.
What I love most is how they made rice carry the whole thing. No fillers, no flavor masks. Just rice doing the heavy lifting.
It reminded me of that 2019 moment when Michelin-starred chefs were obsessed with single-ingredient plates. One carrot, three textures. Beetroot, but in five forms. Part flex, part storytelling. Show what an ingredient can really do.
It lines up with Japan’s bigger push to boost domestic rice consumption, which has been on the decline for years. Now, the government’s encouraging companies to turn rice into more than just a side dish. That’s what Glico’s doing here in the candy aisle.
Unfortunately, it’s only a concept product at the moment and will only be available to sample at Expo 2025 Osaka.
That’s it for this week.
If you’re looking for the right co-manufacturer or supplier to help you build what’s next, Chapter Foods is here. We connect brands and retailers with the right partners: fast, reliable, and ready.
Until next time, stay focused and keep moving.
Can Koyuncu, Co-Founder & CMO