This Week in CPG: Billion-Dollar Bets, Private Label Power Plays & Ben Stiller’s Soda Gamble
PepsiCo just dropped $1.95 billion on Poppi, but is this a smart supply chain play or a risky brand bet? Meanwhile, Ben Stiller is launching a soda brand (because why not?), but in a category already crowded, does he stand a chance?
Beyond soda, retailers are making their own power moves. With Target, Kroger, and warehouse clubs like Costco aggressively expanding their in-house brands, the future of grocery may not only be shaped by CPG giants or startups but by retailers themselves.
Plus, the State of Treating 2025 report just published, breaking down how candy sales hit $54.2 billion despite economic pressures, and why BFY confectionery still struggles with adoption.
And finally, a thought: does a shorter ingredient list really mean “cleaner”? Or are we oversimplifying food formulation?
PepsiCo’s $1.95B Poppi Play: A Supply Chain Win & a Brand-Driven Bet
There are two legs to this deal, as far as I see it. One is about supply chain and scalability; the other is about brand and marketing power.
1. The Supply Chain & Formula Advantage
When it came to an acquisition, Poppi was always the safer bet. Its formula is simple: flavored sparkling water, apple cider vinegar, and prebiotics. That means fewer hurdles in production, reformulation, and regulatory approvals.
Compare that to Olipop. Its “Olismart” fiber blend is a different beast: chicory root, Jerusalem artichoke, nopal cactus, cassava fiber–ingredients that require careful handling, supply chain consistency, and a strong scientific backing to maintain its functional claims. The second Pepsi touches that formula, reformulation risks start stacking up.
With Poppi, scaling is easier. The drink doesn’t rely on complex fiber systems or digestive health claims that need to be rigorously defended. It’s more plug-and-play for Pepsi’s global supply chain. Faster rollouts, fewer reformulation headaches, and wider retail appeal.
And the other thing is, Pepsi didn’t just buy a formula to scale. It bought a brand.
Poppi nailed community, social media, and cultural relevance in a way no other better-for-you soda has. While Olipop took a health-first approach, Poppi made functional (maybe not so much after the lawsuit) soda feel fun, vibrant, and aspirational.
- Social-first storytelling: They sold a lifestyle.
- Brand equity in Gen Z & Millennial markets: They positioned themselves as the fun, fizzy, good-for-you soda.
- Clean, mass-market positioning: No gut-health deep dives, just a simple message: better soda, no junk.
But, can Pepsi keep the magic alive? Big CPG has a track record of buying hot brands, stripping them of their soul, and losing the audience that made them special. If Poppi becomes just another soda sitting next to Mountain Dew, this play won’t be worth $2B.
Ben Stiller Is Getting Into the Soda Game—But Can He Compete?
Ben Stiller is taking a break from directing mind-bending series, Severance (yes, I’m still thinking about season 2 episode 9) to launch something unexpected from him but not unexpected from a celebrity: a soda brand.
Stiller’s, a low-sugar soda, is reportedly in the works, with a trademark application filed in November and fundraising discussions underway. Stiller is even set to star in his own ads, because of course he is.
The timing is interesting. PepsiCo just bought Poppi, Olipop is valued at $1.85 billion, and Coca-Cola is testing its own prebiotic soda, Simply Pop. It’s clear that functional, low-sugar sodas are becoming a mainstream category.
So what’s Stiller’s play here? Another functional + nostalgic soda alternative? Another low sugar soda without any functional benefits? Because in a market already packed with strong brands, just being a celebrity-backed beverage won’t cut it. And I am not so sure if he is known for his soda love or any attributes to live a healthier life.
Sure, he’s got some beverage experience. He pitched Pepsi Zero Sugar in a Super Bowl ad before. But running a brand isn’t the same as starring in a commercial. If Stiller’s can carve out a clear identity, it could have legs. If not, it might just be another celebrity fizz that fades fast.
Would you give it a sip? Or more importantly, what wild twist is Severance we about to see in the season finale?
The State of Treating 2025 Report is Out!
The latest State of Treating report just published, and it’s a deep dive into where the confectionery industry stands today:
Total U.S. confectionery sales hit $54.2 billion in 2024, showing that while candy remains a powerhouse, consumer habits are shifting. Pricing pressures, evolving preferences, and the push for better-for-you options are all shaping how and why people treat themselves.
One thing hasn’t changed–treating is still essential. 98.3% of households bought confectionery at least once in 2024. People might be adjusting their spending, but they aren’t skipping candy. Annual spending per buyer climbed to $276, up 4.0%, even as price sensitivity grew. Promotions are playing a bigger role, with 71% of consumers ranking price as a top factor and 59% actively seeking “buy one, get one” deals. The rise of private label chocolate—up 10.7% in volume—shows that price-conscious shoppers are shifting loyalties when it makes sense.
Seasonal sales continue to be a major force. Holidays like Halloween, Christmas, Valentine’s Day, and Easter fueled over $25 billion in sales. People want their seasonal treats to feel special. 9 in 10 consumers say they look for holiday-themed shapes, colors, and flavors. The emotional connection to candy is still strong, and brands that lean into these traditions will win.
Then there’s the better-for-you conversation. 62% of consumers believe BFY confectionery exists, but only 10% actually buy it frequently. The interest is there, but taste, price, and accessibility are still hurdles. That said, packaging innovation, things like resealable packs and portion control, is making a difference.
So, what’s next? The industry is balancing affordability, functionality, and emotional connection. While economic pressures are shaping behavior, treating is still a priority. Expect to see more BFY innovation, stronger promotional strategies, and a continued focus on seasonal relevance.
Private Label is Still Having a Moment
Retailers are doubling down on their private-label strategies, and the moves we’re seeing from Target, Kroger, and major club stores show that this isn’t just about offering cheaper alternatives anymore. It’s about building brand loyalty, controlling margins, and creating destination-worthy products that national brands can’t compete with.
Target is expanding its Good & Gather and Favorite Day brands in a big way, with 600 new grocery items coming in 2025. They’re also launching Good & Gather Collabs, bringing in top-tier chefs like James Beard Award-winner Ann Kim to create exclusive, restaurant-quality products—think Korean-inspired frozen pizzas and appetizers.
Meanwhile, Kroger is in full innovation mode, adding hundreds of new products across its Our Brands lineup after a strong year. Their focus? Finding the gaps where national brands aren’t delivering and using private label to differentiate Kroger from every other grocery chain. From opening price point items to premium selections like Private Selection and Simple Truth, Kroger is making sure its private-label portfolio competes at every level.
And then there’s the warehouse clubs–Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s Wholesale–where private label is taking over more and more shelf space.
Club store private-label sales are outpacing the overall private-brand growth rate by almost 2x, with Costco’s Kirkland Signature hitting a 33% penetration rate. Sam’s Club is using real-time customer feedback to refine and launch Member’s Mark products, while BJ’s is aggressively expanding its Berkley Jensen line, especially in everyday essentials like food storage.
If this momentum continues, the future of grocery won’t be shaped solely by legacy or startup CPG brands–it may come directly from retailers themselves.
Is Fewer Always Better? Rethinking the Clean Label Obsession
While working on a retail pitch for a new product today, a team member asked how many ingredients it had, wondering if we could highlight a clean, minimal ingredient list.
I looked it up and found 16 ingredients.
But here’s the thing: every single one was a whole food or minimally processed. That made me wonder… if I’m intentionally packing my diet with variety for the last three years (rainbow diet), does a lower ingredient count in a packaged food always mean better?
Maybe not. Promoting short ingredient lists makes sense in many cases, but sometimes, the opposite of a good idea might also be a good idea as Rory Sutherland always says.
Good Reads: Hungryroot-A Masterclass in Pivoting
If you’re in the food and beverage space, Hungryroot’s story is one to study. What started as yet another meal-kit company, just one of many fighting for survival in the mid-2010s, has transformed into something much bigger: an AI-powered, ultra-lean online grocer that might just become a billion-dollar brand.
Dr. James F. Richardson breaks down how Hungryroot outmaneuvered its competitors, ditching the traditional meal-kit model, rethinking its supply chain, and turning data into its biggest asset. This is a blueprint for brands looking to scale smarter, not harder.
That’s It for This Week.
Got thoughts? Questions? Just hit reply–I’d love to hear what’s on your mind.
And if you’re looking for the right co-manufacturer or supplier to bring your next big idea to life (or just need a better option than what you have now), Chapter Foods has you covered. We connect brands and retailers with vetted partners who can deliver on quality, efficiency, and innovation. Let’s make something great, reach out anytime!
Until next time, stay sharp and keep pushing forward.
Can Koyuncu, Co-Founder & CMO